Infonetics Research - Femtocell market growth modest, but beginning to pick up

[marketwire] "2009 was heralded by many as 'the year of the femtocell.' In short, it wasn't. Progress was made, though: the Iu-h interface was established, the Femto Forum initiated an interoperability test (IOT) program, femtocell prices came down, and most major mobile operators were engaged in some sort of trial. Femtocell adoption will remain modest in 2010, and then in 2011-2012 we expect the femtocell segment to begin to prove itself, and in so doing, drive the rest of the FMC market," predicts Richard Webb, directing analyst for WiMAX, microwave, and mobile devices at Infonetics Research and co-author of the report.

Stéphane Téral, principal analyst for mobile and FMC infrastructure at Infonetics Research and co-author of the report, adds: "Universal mobile access and voice call continuity are essentially dead. UMA is morphing into an app and the GSMA endorsement of the OneVoice initiative, quickly renamed VoLTE (voice over Long Term Evolution), sealed VCC's fate and declared IMS the long-term universal voice service delivery platform."

FMC AND FEMTOCELL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

* Combined, sales of FMC network elements and femtocells are forecast to grow at a rapid 86% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2009 to 2014
* Worldwide revenue from 2G and 3G femtocells sold for use in GSM/GPRS, CDMA, W-CDMA/HSPA and CDMA2000/EV-DO networks increased 154% in 2009 over 2008, from a small base
* The number of femtocells sold is expected to pick up significantly next year, topping 2.5 million in 2011
* AT&T, China Unicom, CSL, Network Norway, Optimus, SFR, Sprint, StarHub, Verizon and Vodafone have launched commercial femtocell services, while the majority of 3G operators are expected to postpone femtocell launches until late 2010 or 2011
* The need for mobile data off-load will drive strong growth in the FMC security gateway segment starting in 2010, with manufacturer revenue more than doubling between 2010 and 2011
* The rise to power of the iPhone propelled Apple into first place in the massive dual-mode cellular/WiFi phone market in the fourth quarter of 2009, pushing Nokia out of the leadership position for the first time
* Revenue from seamless FMC phones with embedded IMS technology and dual-mode WiFi and cellular functionality grew 51% in 2009 over 2008
* The number of worldwide seamless FMC subscribers is forecast to top 64 million by 2014, with IMS-based FMC subscribers increasing and UMA-based subscribers decreasing

Infonetics Research: Femtocell market up 154%; Apple overtakes Nokia in fixed-mobile convergence phones