Friday, February 06, 2009

Semiconductor equipment recession

No upturn for semiconductor equipment until at least June

The semiconductor equipment market will continue to be on a downward slope at least through the end of May, according to a recent report published by The Information Network.

"Our leading indicators, which determine inflection points in economic activity and which we utilize to show turning points in semiconductor equipment sales five months out, continue to point down, indicating that there will be no upturn through May 2009," said Robert N Castellano, president of The Information Network.

The steepness of the downward inflection in our indicators is greater than the downturn in 2001, suggesting that equipment revenues will exhibit a greater decrease that the 30% drop in 2001. That decline was followed by a 23% drop in 2002 and another 5% in 2003.

Global semiconductor revenues will drop 41% in 2009, but a 20% recovery (of sorts) is expected to follow in 2010, the market research firm forecast.

"We have been using these indicators since 2000 and they have proven to highly quantitative metrics in every forecast we have given, and in nearly every given year we have not had to change our forecast midstream," added Castellano.

No comments: