Tanzania: Strong growth in mobile has caused the fixed incumbent to shrink

[official wire] Growth in Tanzania's mobile market was very strong in 2008. Although the end of year total fell slightly short of our estimation, this was by less than 0.1%, so the discrepancy is negligible. There were just under 5mn net additions in the year as a whole. Market dominator Vodacom is seeing a continued erosion of its market share, demonstrating the healthy progression of competition in the market. Vodacom is still just hanging on to a share above 40%, but it is expected it will have slipped below this level during Q109.

Second ranked Zain had a particularly strong Q408, and managed to gain a little on Vodacom, ending the year on a 29.0% market share, which was an improvement on 27.5% in June 2008. This operator's market share has been generally fluctuating just below 30% for the last couple of years, and does not seem to be seeing the gradual decline that Vodacom is experiencing. Tigo, still the third ranked operator, saw a slight faltering to its progress in the final quarter of 2007, seeing a reduction in market share for the first time in over six quarters, while Zantel continues to make steady progress in its bid to catch it. The other operators remain very minor players.

2008 saw new operators added to the market, and even more being licensed. In November 2008, locally backed companies MyCell and Egotel were licensed as mobile operators. In addition, several other companies received licences to provide fixed-line services, probably over fixed-wireless technologies, since investing in fixed-line networks is so costly.

2008, especially the second half, saw a dramatic drop-off in the number of fixed lines in service.

According to the telecoms regulator, the Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority, Tanzania's fixed-line incumbent Tanzania Telecommunications Company (TTCL) lost over 41,000 subscribers during 2008, which, given the very small size of the market as a whole, makes up a not inconsiderable portion of its subscriber base.

Tanzania's broadband market is underdeveloped, even for East Africa. Low levels of internet usage suggest the technology is yet to have an impact on the population. New investments in WiMAX and 3G mobile broadband may yet be key to increasing the influence of the worldwide web.

Tanzania Telecommunications Company (TTCL) Lost Over 41,000 Subscribers During 2008