Australia - Telstra would be content with the ALP's NBN as a means to change Telstra away from its intregrated monopoly culture

[the australian] TELSTRA boss David Thodey is privately breathing a little easier at the signs that Julia Gillard will be able to form a government.

He wouldn't say so publicly, but the government's NBN program and the $11 billion on offer provides the ideal circuit-breaker for Thodey in his attempts to transform the culture at the incumbent integrated monopoly.

Thodey's gain from a Gillard government would not be cheered by the wider business community -- and certainly not Elmer Funke Kupper at Tabcorp and comrade Dick McIlwain at Tatts, given her deal with anti-poker machine campaigner Andrew Wilkie.

Business's worst fear heading into the election was a hung House of Representative and a Greens-controlled Senate, and that's exactly what we have.

Come September 29, when Telstra holds its annual strategy day, Thodey will roll out new consumer boss Gordon Ballantyne and strategy chief Robert Nason to sell the transformation program.

While Thodey would no doubt argue all of this is possible if Tony Abbott sneaks into power and scraps the NBN, it will be harder and take much longer.

The self-serving campaign by wireless and backhaul providers like AAPT and Pipe Networks has underlined the need for a a fundamental change in the structure of the industry, and the NBN model is the best model to start with.

The so-called alternative presented by the aforementioned pretenders is for the government to spend more money on wireless and backhaul, which just happens to be the business they're in.

Their plan also comes up alarmingly short on basic needs like wireless spectrum and technology choices.

The more rational Telstra competitors with genuine customer bases like Primus, Macquarie and Optus were working through plans to push for increased ACCC scrutiny of Telstra under a model in which its wholesale network control would be ring-fenced from the retail arm.

Until someone actually forms government both models will be fine-tuned, but the NBN is the cleanest and most obvious solution.

McKinsey figures it will be self-financing after about $28bn in public spending, and having Telstra sign on will save the government about $5-6bn in the cost of the network build.

NBN boss Mike Quigley wisely chose the city of Armidale -- which just happens to be the electoral base of one of the independents, Tony Windsor -- to roll out one of the trial NBN programs.

That wasn't exactly a coincidence, and the reality is that if Gillard does manage to form a government, the NBN enabling legislation complete with the structural separation of Telstra should be one of the easier bits of legislation to get through parliament.

This will certainly be the case next year when Senate control switches to the Greens.

There is still debate within Telstra as to whether it would be better with or without the NBN.

The latter means retaining monopoly control of fixed-line assets that deliver 55 per cent plus profit margins.

Wireless margins are more like 33 per cent, so while copper may be a fading star it is still highly profitable.

Then again, there is the $300 million-a-year maintenance bill on the copper access network (CAN) and an unstated substantial sum for operational expenditure on the CAN.

There is also responsibility for the circa $550m bill to maintain regional communications services under the so-called universal services obligation.

In return there's a guaranteed long-term income stream from NBN for access to its ducts, compensation for customers that are switched on to the NBN and a direct subsidy of $2bn in the $11bn payout.

Granted, the NBN comes with risk, because Telstra customers will be open to attack from rivals -- but that's what the cultural change program is all about.

PM pressing Telstra's buttons