[fortune] Finds high pent up demand for iPhone 5 among Verizon subscribers and Android owners.
It's only a tiny sample, so large conclusions must not be drawn. But the survey results reported in Gene Munster's note to Piper Jaffray clients Monday suggest that the pent-up demand for Apple's (AAPL) next iPhone could be even stronger than suspected.
In a survey of 216 mobile phone users conducted one recent week in Minneapolis ( in "food courts, on the street, near the entrance of a baseball stadium on a game day"), Munster found evidence that the iPhone's market share could by his estimate double in the next round of smartphone purchases. Specifically he found:
Among all respondents 64% indicated that they plan to buy an iPhone when they purchase a new phone.
Of those surveyed, 29% already have iPhones and 64% expect their next phone to be an iPhone; 17% have an Android device and 17% also indicated they expect their next phone to be an Android.
Among those who do not have an iPhone but plan to buy an iPhone next, 60% are specifically waiting for the iPhone 5
Of those Verizon subs who do not have an iPhone but plan to buy an iPhone next, 74% are specifically waiting for the iPhone 5,
At AT&T, that same metric is 53%.
Among existing iPhone users, 94% expect to buy another iPhone (6% expect to switch to Android)
Among existing Android users 47% expect to buy another Android smartphone (42% expect to switch to iPhone).
Among all BlackBerry users just 26% expect to buy another BlackBerry, 67% expect to buy an iPhone and 3% expect to buy an Android device.
"In other words," Munster concludes, "our survey suggests Apple will take share from BlackBerry and, to a lesser degree, Android as well as other smartphones and feature phones in the future. "
Survey: iPhone retention 94% vs. Android 47%