[telegeography] New research released by TeleGeography shows that while the global recession has dampened growth in many markets, this is a short-term phenomenon. GlobalComms Insight forecasts that by the end of 2013 the number of broadband subscribers across the world will have grown by 72% to over 700 million, while wireless subscriptions will have grown by well over two billion, an increase of 60%. The death of traditional fixed line phone services has been much talked about, but its demise has been greatly exaggerated: the number of fixed lines will fall over the next five years, but the decline will be gradual and will be offset by continued strong growth in both broadband and wireless customers. In aggregate, GlobalComms Insight predicts that by the end of 2013 there will be no fewer than 2.5 billion net new subscribers or revenue generating units. That represents a CAGR of almost 8%.
GlobalComms Insight shows that the Asia-Pacific region will continue to dominate the global market in terms of subscriber numbers, but the story is very different when considering market value. In 2013 the region’s 50% share of global subscribers will account for only 28% of global market value. Conversely, while the relative size and importance of the North American market continues to diminish, in 2013 its 7% of subscribers will still account for 23% of global market value.
2.5 billion new subscribers by 2013: who? what? where? when?